Star Wars: The Force Awakensis the current opening weekend record holder with a commanding $248 million in the U.S. Traditionally, direct sequels don’t tend to make more than their predecessors on opening weekend (for example,The Avengersopened to $207 million, butAvengers: Age of Ultronopened to $191 million). So where does that leaveStar Wars: The Last Jediin terms of predicting its opening weekend?
According toTHR, analysts predict thatThe Last Jediwill open above $200 million, and that alone would put it in rare company. The only movies to ever eclipse $200 million on opening weekend areThe Force Awakens,The Avengers, andJurassic World. Last year’sRogue One: A Star Wars Storymade an impressive $155.1 million, butThe Last Jedi, with the power of being a “main”Star Warsfilm carries more power, especially since audiences have sparked to new characters like Rey, Finn, Poe, and Kylo Ren.
Although THR doesn’t specify if they thinkThe Last Jedican beat outThe Force Awakens, I predict it will fall just a little shy.The Force Awakenshad the benefit of being something completely new and a way to get people back on board after the disappointing prequel trilogy. But without that “shiny, new” thing that people need to know about on opening weekend, the demand forThe Last Jediwill be somewhat lessened even if the reaction is more enthusiastic (a tough bar to clear since people seem to really enjoyThe Force Awakens).
The other question is whetherThe Last Jediwill have the legs ofThe Force Awakens. J.J. Abrams’Star Warsmovie went on to pull in over $2 billion worldwide whileRogue Onetopped out at a little over $1 billion. I don’t expect this will be a case of diminishing returns, and I wouldn’t be surprised ifThe Last Jedilands closer toThe Force Awakens’ return assuming the film is good.
Star Wars: The Last Jediopens December 15th.
