Awards season is over, at long last, andThe Shape of Wateris the Best Picture of 2017. It was billed as one of the most unpredictable Oscars ceremonies in history, but when all was said and done, things actually played out more or less as expected. Prognosticators and industry insiders were spooked from last year’sMoonlightshocker, which wasn’t surprising just because of the envelope mix-up, but becauseMoonlightbroke longheld stats that paved the way to an Oscar win. Indeed,Barry Jenkins’ film won Oscar’s top prize without winning the Producers’ Guild Award, Directors’ Guild Award, or Screen Actors Guild Award, bucking longheld convention.
So as we headed into this year’s Oscar ceremony, there seemed to be three major candidates to win Best Picture, but each one of them would be busting statistics that usually prove reliable for prognosticators.Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouriwas the “populist” pick, having scored the SAG award but failing to earn a Best Director nomination. If it won Best Picture, it would have been one ofveryfew films to do so without that key nod. It didn’t.
Get Outwas the “dark horse” pick. Momentum had been building forJordan Peele’s thriller, including a Spirit Awards win on Saturday, but only 10 films have ever won Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination, and the last one to do so was in 1980. Moreover,Get Out’s path to victory included only one other clear win, in Screenplay, so it would be aninsanerarity as a Best Picture winner with only two wins overall. Indeed, it didn’t win Best Picture.
The Shape of Waterdid win Best Picture, but it broke some statistics along the way. It had the PGA and DGA in hand, making it the “safe” pick going into the night, but it wasn’t even nominated for a Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Ensemble. Given that actors are the largest voting block in the Academy, many took this as a sign that the film didn’t have the support needed to win Best Picture. In fact, not sinceBraveheart24 years ago has a film won Best Picture without that SAG nomination, makingThe Shape of Wateronly the second film in history to do so. That’s an impressive statistic to overcome.
And yet, in hindsightThe Shape of Water’s win makes a lot of sense. The film earned a ton of nominations, was clearly beloved byeveryonein the Academy based on the support in the craft categories as well as acting, writing, and directing, andGuillermo del Torowas a mainstay on the campaign circuit over the last few months—it’s impossible to hear the guy speak and not fall in love with his passion for movies. And oh yeah, the film itself is pretty masterful too. This is an incredibly agreeable Best Picture choice.
By and large, the Oscars ceremony last night went off without any major surprises. Best Original Screenplay was an incredibly competitive category, but many pegged Peele for a win—the Academy has gotten more ambitious here in recent years, as whenSpike Jonze’sHerbeat out Oscar heavyAmerican Hustle. AndDunkirkwas clearly an industry favorite over the ensuing months after its release, soChristopher Nolan’s film racking up three awards (including a long overdue win for EditorLee Smith) was also not super surprising.
Folks may be befuddled as to howWar for the Planet of the Apeslost Best Visual Effects toBlade Runner 2049, but this “upset” was actually in keeping with the idiosyncrasy of this category. The prior twoApesfilms lost toHugoandInterstellar, and on the whole the Academy usually favors more “prestige-y” pictures here for whatever reason. That doesn’t excuse them from the shame they should feel for never recognizing WETA’s groundbreaking work on this trilogy of course, butBlade Runner’s win here wasn’t a shock.
As for the acting categories, this quartet has been locked in for months.Gary Oldman,Frances McDormand,Sam Rockwell, andAllison Janneyhave been winning every acting trophy in sight for a while now, and those categories played out exactly as expected on Oscar night.
Indeed in some ways last night’s Oscars was a return to form, as the Shorts categories were where most ballots seemed to die. That’s been the case for decades, and whileDear Basketballwas something of a shoo-in, Best Live-Action Short and Best Documentary Short didn’t play out according to consensus.
So did we learn anything from this “predictable” ceremony? Kinda, yeah. Last year the theme was that the Academy’s membership had been radically transformed over the last few years, with 25% of the voting body made up of new, younger, more diverse members. That still holds true, and even thoughShape of Waterwasn’t a “shocking” win, it still broke with conventional statistics that helped guide prognosticators along the way. It’s why so many (myself included) were inclined to pickGet Outfor Best Picture—statistics are still a solid guidepost, but they’re no longer the thing to cling to. As we’ve seen, these rules are now easily broken.
There mere fact thatGet Outgot as many nominations as it did—and a Best Original Screenplay win—is a sign that times are changing.Get Outis not your traditional “Oscar movie,” but this is not your traditional Academy anymore. For proof, look no further than the fact that this year’s Best Picture winner isn’t a period drama or a feel-good character study, it’s a fairy tale about a mute woman who falls in love with a Fish God. The New Academy Order is here, and the rules—for the most part—are out the window.
