The Best Actor Oscar race this year isinsanelycompetitive, and at its earliest stages there was any combination of 10-15 men who had a decent shot at landing in the nominations circle. Things have narrowed down a bit in recent weeks with the SAG nominations and the Golden Globe awards, so we now have a better idea of what this category might look like when Oscar nominations are announced next Monday.
So ahead of that announcement, here are my current Best Actor predictions for who has the best shot at landing a nomination, and who’s our frontrunner right now. Actors are listed in order of likelihood to be nominated.
Frontrunners
Joaquin Phoenix –Joker
Leonardo DiCaprio –Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver –Marriage Story
Taron Egerton —Rocketman
Antonio Banderas -Pain and Glory
Joaquin Phoenixgives the “physical transformation” performance of the year, disappearing fully into the title role in the divisiveJoker, and he is very much the frontrunner to win at this point. He won the Golden Globe, but more than that actors have beenravingabout his performance for months now. The Academy can’t resist a great “transformative” performance (see also: Best Actress this year), and despite Phoenix’s, uh, awkwardness up on the stage, I think he’s in line to win his first ever Oscar.
Filling out the rest of the category,Leonardo DiCapriohas been on the awards circuit forOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood,although not hitting it as hard as he did in the past. Likely because withThe Revenant,my dude finally got his Oscar. Still, he’s an Academy favorite and genuinely gives a great performance, so I think he gets in.
DittoAdam DriverinMarriage Story, which for my money is the performance of the year. He’s been picking up accolades left and right, but unfortunately for him, his turn inNoah Baumbach’s family drama is one of subtlety and restrained emotion. For the Oscars, they love them somebigperformances, so Driver’s nomination is probably his prize here.
Then things get interesting with the final two slots.Robert De Nirohad been considered a major contender forThe Irishman,but he was shut out of both the SAG nominations and the Golden Globe nominations. I have a bad feeling that might repeat with the Oscars as well, leaving him out in the cold for his best performance in years.
In his stead?Taron EgertonforRocketman. TheKingsmanactor has been hitting the awards circuithardall year after theElton Johnbiopic came out in the spring, and he not only scored SAG and Golden Globe nominations, but he beat DiCaprio to win the Globe for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy. He’s likable and is genuinely great in the movie, and it’s hard to argue with a nomination here whenRami Malekwonthe Oscar for dong far less in a much worse musical biopic.
Then there’sAntonio Banderasgiving his best performance in years inPedro Almodovar’sPain and Glory.It’s a tremendous turn and momentum has been building up around Banderas for months now, so I have a feeling that’s going to translate to a Best Actor nomination.
In the Mix
George MacKay -1917
Robert De Niro -The Irishman
Eddie Murphy –Dolemite Is My Name
Christian Bale –Ford v Ferrari
Jonathan Pryce –The Two Popes
Adam Sandler –Uncut Gems
So who does this leave out in the cold? De Niro, for one, but alsoEddie Murphy, who has been riding a comeback narrative for his excellent turn inDolemite Is My Name.He’s great in the movie, but the film itself doesn’t really dig too deep into Rudy Ray Moore’s personal life. Murphy shines, but the film lacks the kind of narrative that usually propels performances to the winner’s circle. He could still get in (and I genuinely think he deserves to), but it’s looking a bit less likely now. DittoAdam SandlerinUncutGems, a swell, critically acclaimed performance that hasn’t gotten as much traction within the industry as Banderas.
And if you’re of the opinion that1917has a shot to win Best Picture, watch out forGeorge MacKayto earn a surprise nod. It’s rare for a movie to win the Oscars' top prize without an acting nomination, and his is the likeliest of the bunch.
So that’s about it for now, allowing for a surprise or two on Monday. But as it stands now, this is how I see things shaking out.
