For the second year in a row, the Best Actress race isfarmore interesting than the race for Best Actor. There have been a bevy of stunning leading actress performances in 2016, and while the Oscar race is still in its fairly early stages, we’ve seen a number of ups and downs. This one’s going to be one of the hardest to predict come Oscar night, as I can foresee a slew of different outcomes, but whoever wins we can rest assured it’ll be for a phenomenal performance.
In coordination with my continuing Oscar coverage here on Collider in the form of Oscar Beat, I’ve put together a few predictions pieces that will be updated as the race moves forward. Below, I’ve assembled some predictions for the Best Actress race, dividing contenders up into a couple of different categories. Keep in mind that, this being the Oscar race and all, things can and will change often, but as of right now, this is the lay of the land.
Last updated December 9th.
Frontrunners
1. Emma Stone –La La Land
2. Natalie Portman –Jackie
3.Annette Bening –20th Century Women
4. Ruth Negga —Loving
5. Isabelle Huppert –Elle
Emma Stonelaunched to the front of the Best Actress pack whenLa La Landdebuted at Telluride in September, and indeed she still appears to be the frontrunner here, but she’s got some serious competition.Natalie Portman—who won this category forBlack Swan—gives quite possibly the best performance of her career inJackie, where a haunting and nuanced turn as Jackie Kennedy in the wake of JFK’s assassination is the heart and soul of the film. Indeed, Portman could even have a leg up given thatJackieis all about her performance. It’s a very intimate film that meditates on grief and legacy, and Portman shines all the way through. On the other hand, while Stone is very much the protagonist ofLa La Landand has a show-stopping number called “Audition”, she does share screentime with her co-leadRyan Gosling.
But there’s alsoRuth Negga’s measured, quiet strength inLovingthat has the potential to break out big. The film itself is so small in its voice that many wonder how heavily it might break into the Oscar fold, but Negga’s breakout performance cannot be denied, as she navigates issues of both race and gender in this true story of an interracial married couple fighting for the right to stay married. While the pic’s profile has waned a tad in recent weeks, it’ll be interesting to see what Focus Features does to give it one last push before voting begins.
Annette Beningis also turning heads for her leading performance inBeginnersfilmmakerMike Mills’ family drama20th Century Women, but rising in the ranks isIsabelle Huppertfor her strong turn inPaul Verhoeven’s new filmElle. The pic premiered at Cannes in May, but picked up more notice on the Fall Film Festival circuit. Where Huppert is really getting a boost is in the critics awards. She won Best Actress from both the New York Film Critics Circle and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and while critics don’t vote for Oscars, her name is certainly rising into the spotlight due to these honors. The acting categories can sometimes throw a bit of a curveball in there at the last minute, and they’re no stranger to foreign film noms (or wins—askMarion Cotillard), so Huppert is definitely in this race.
In the Mix
6. Amy Adams —Arrival
7. Meryl Streep —Florence Foster Jenkins
8. Taraji P. Henson –Hidden Figures
Just outside the pack isAmy Adams,who’s been nominated for five Oscars already and gives one ofherbest performances of her career inArrival. It remains to be seen how strongly the film will connect with Academy members given their apprehension to the sci-fi genre, butArrivalis a very intimate, emotional story of grief, so if it plays big I think Adams gets a sixth nomination. And deservedly so.
Meryl Streepis, of course, an Academy favorite, and her winning turn inFlorence Foster Jenkinscould result in a whopping 20th Oscar nomination. With The Weinstein Company at its back,Florence Foster Jenkinscould certainly be this year’sPhilomenagiven how well it’s been playing with the older voters, and TWC just recently put the film back in theaters to raise its profile once more.
There’s alsoHidden Figures, a late entry into the race but a crowd-pleasing one that could getTaraji P. Hensonher second Oscar nomination. It’s an ensemble film and Henson may be a bit overshadowed, but she’s certainly one to keep an eye on.
Outside Contenders
9. Jessica Chastain –Miss Sloane
10. Kate Beckinsale –Love & Friendship
11. Rebecca Hall –Christine
12. Marion Cotillard –Allied
On the fringe, there hasn’t been too much buzz aboutShakespeare in LovedirectorJohn Madden’s political dramaMiss Sloane, butJessica Chastainis a multiple nominee and Academy favorite, so she’s a possibility.Kate BeckinsaleandRebecca Hallhave also been earning raves for their turns in the indiesLove & FriendshipandChristine, respectively. And whileAlliedwasn’t the most successful of films—with critics or audiences—a portion of the Academy could take toRobert Zemeckis' throwback romance, and previous Best Actress winnerMarion Cotillardis certainly something of an Oscar favorite.
And if you’re wondering whereViola Davisis forFences, she’s officially being submitted for consideration under Best Supporting Actress. So, yeah, we can probably go ahead and start the engraving now.
For more on this year’s Oscar race,click hereto follow along with all of my Oscar Beat coverage thus far. And peruse the links below for my other predictions pieces.
