Looking back at April,The Jungle Bookalways looked to come out on top, but it proved to be one of those films that is not only massively successful but also dominates everything in its path, particularly the expensiveThe Huntsman: Winter’s War. Meanwhile, the star-studdedMother’s Daycame in below expectations, as didHardcore HenryandKeanu.
For the last two months, I have grossly underestimated Disney releasesThe Jungle BookandZootopia. I plan on not making this mistake again withCaptain America: Civil War, which seems like it could set a new opening weekend record for May. WithCivil War,X-Men: Apocalypse,The Angry Birds Movie, andAlice Through The Looking Glasslooking at high returns, this should be able to surpass last year’s frame whenAvengers: Age of Ultron,Pitch Perfect 2, andSan Andreasled the box office.
‘Captain America: Civil War’ – May 6 (Disney)
As it has for the last nine years (including theSpider-ManandX-Menfilms), the first weekend of May will be kicking off with a Marvel film. In recent years, the Marvel brand has,relativelyspeaking, lost some of its momentum. Last year’sAvengers: Age of Ultronfailed to meet the heights of its predecessor, andAnt-Manbecame the lowest grossing film of the Marvel Cinematic Universe aside fromThe Incredible HulkandCaptain America: The First Avenger. ‘Relatively’ is in italics above becauseAge of Ultronwas still a massive success and ended up with $1.4 billion andAnt-Mangrossed $519.2 million despite his being one of the lesser-known Marvel characters.
Captain America: Civil Warhas just about everything going for it. While some believe that the “start of summer” has shifted due toFurious 7andCaptain America: The Winter Soldieropening at the beginning of April, the first weekend of May is historically the start of blockbuster season and is a coveted tent pole date for studios. The last two films from the Marvel Cinematic Universe that have opened in this frame,Avengers: Age of UltronandIron Man 3, each grossed upwards of $170 million in their first three days.
In addition, this film stars arguably the two most popular MCU characters, Iron Man and Captain America, and, due to the presence of returning characters Black Widow, The Vision, Hawkeye, Scarlet Witch, and War Machine, is being dubbed by many as “The Avengers 2.5”. However, unlike the twoAvengersfilms,Civil Warfor the first time features the Avengers facing off against one another, which has made this film a must-see for MCU fans.
Lastly, this film also marks the addition ofSpider-Manto the MCU. Though it may seem like a long time ago, the firstSpider-Manfilm broke opening weekend records back in 2002, leading many studios to begin to green light other superhero franchises. Though the character had some missteps withThe Amazing Spider-Manfilms, he remains one of the most popular comic book characters today. His inclusion in the film (as well as in one of the trailers) has added even more to the growing hype.
At the time of this writing,Civil Warholds a 94% on Rotten Tomatoes, indicating heavy critical acclaim. AnAvengers-level opening and final gross seem likely, and without major competition untilX-Men: Apocalypsethree weeks later, may even climb higher.
‘The Darkness’ – May 13 (High Top Releasing)
The Darknesshas horror fans all to itself during the month of May, features an appealing cast that includesKevin Bacon,Jennifer Morrison, andRadha Mitchell, and has a premise, of a supernatural entity following a family home from vacation, that is undeniably scary. Unfortunately, the film’s trailer lacks genuine scares and unique visuals, which are essential to selling a horror film to general audiences.
In addition, while an exact screen count is not yet available, the widest release from distributor High Top Releasing was last year’sThe Green Inferno, at 1,540 theaters. That film opened to $3.5 million and ended its run with $7.1 million. The film may get a boost from being released on Friday the 13th, but an amount around that final figure seems likely.
‘Money Monster’ – May 13 (Sony)
Despite having a somewhat nondescript and bland poster, the trailer forMoney Monsteris actually very tense, highlighting the film’s strong premise and all-star cast. Although he’s had a few misfires recently, when paired with the right materialGeorge Clooneyis typically a reliable star at the box office (The Monuments Men,The Descendants), and while she isn’t the draw she once was, the presence ofJulia Robertsshould help.
Though it is opening in the shadow ofCivil War,Money Monsteris aiming for a mostly older demographic, and if the movie turns out to be good, could end up providing solid counter programming. In addition, it doesn’t face any competition for adult dramas untilMe Before You, which arrives the first weekend of June.
Money Monsterin many ways feels reminiscent of 2003’sPhone Booth. Both films involve one person being taken hostage by a shooter and take place mainly in one location.Phone Boothended up with $46.5 million. Given the talent here both in front of and behind the camera (Jodie Fosteron directing duties) and the release date,Phone Booth’sgross seems like a good target.
‘The Angry Birds Movie’ – May 20 (Sony)
The Angry Birds Moviejoins the ranks ofMortal Kombat,Need for Speed, andDoomas an adaptation of a video game with almost no semblance of a plot to draw from. Despite the fact that the genre has included far more failures than successes, Hollywood refuses to give up on video game adaptations, with the big budgetWarcraftarriving in June andAssassin’s Creedin December. Unlike past expensive disappointments such asPrince of Persia,The Angry Birds Movielooks poised to be one of the rare successes of the genre, and may surpass 2001’sLara Croft: Tomb Raideras the highest video game adaptation of all time.
The Angry Birds Moviefeatures a talented voice cast that includesJason Sudeikis,Danny McBride, andMaya Rudolph, has excellent animation, and the trailers are actually very funny, which is key to bringing in adults. What also doesn’t hurt is thatThe Angry Birds Movieactually looks almost exactly like its source material, and the marketing clearly conveys the plot of the video game—a group of angry birds attacking pigs that stole their eggs—which should help bring some of the fans that have downloaded the game a collective 3 billion times across all platforms. A gross around Sony’sHotel Transylvania($148.3 million) seems likely, if not a bit higher.
‘The Nice Guys’ – May 20 (Warner Bros.)
With the exception ofCivil War, in terms of quality,The Nice Guysmay end up being one of the best-reviewed films of May. Despite some backlash forIron Man 3,Shane Blackis a talented filmmaker, and althoughRussell CroweandRyan Goslingaren’t necessarily known for their comedic talents, the trailers forThe Nice Guysare very funny and feature lots of action, and the film has a very appealing retro buddy comedy vibe.
It remains to be seen whether this will translate to success at the box office. Early in his career, Black had much success (as screenwriter) withLethal Weaponand its sequel. Those two films, however, hadMel Gibsoncoming off the popularMad Maxseries. Though Russell Crowe remains a well-liked actor, his recent starring entries such asBroken CityandNoahfell below expectations at the box office.
One other major hurdle facingThe Nice Guysis its release date. It was originally set for June 17, where it would have had comedic audiences to itself for the rest of June and part of July, but that date was instead given toCentral Intelligence.The Nice Guysis now facing off directly againstNeighbors 2: Sorority Rising, and while that film will skew a bit younger, it will still likely be stealing many late teens and early twenty somethings fromThe Nice Guys.The Nice Guysseems in line for a modest opening weekend, but if it turns out to be as good as the trailers look, may have solid holds.
‘Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising’ – May 20 (Universal)
Neighbors 2has many of the key ingredients that make sequels successful. It brings back the original cast (Zac Efron,Seth Rogen,Rose Byrne) with some new additions (Selena Gomez,Chloë Grace Moretz), and it has a plot that is different enough from its predecessor to inspire interest, yet similar enough to avoid alienating fans of the original.
However, successful comedies tend to be hard to replicate, even if the sequels have the right elements.Pitch Perfectand21 Jump Streetweren’t necessarily massive hits out of the gate (wide opening weekends of $14.8 million and $36.3 million, respectively), but built up an audience during their stay in theaters and remained popular on DVD. When their sequels were released, the originals were still well liked and their audiences had increased, leading to grosses much higher than the grosses of their predecessors.
The success ofNeighborswas in large part due to the excellent marketing and funny premise, in addition to an appealing cast. It had a huge opening weekend ($49.0 million) and held on well to a domestic total of $150.1 million. While a sorority moving in next door helps differentiate it from its predecessor, the premise ofNeighbors 2doesn’t feel quite as fresh this time around, and the 6.4 IMDB rating ofNeighborsindicates lukewarm reception from audiences (21 Jump StreetandPitch Perfectboth had 7.2 ratings).
Among recent R-rated comedy sequels,Ted 2grossed only 37.2% ofTed, andHorrible Bosses 2took in 46.3% of its predecessor. The latter drop would putNeighbors 2at just under $70 million. Given the strong release date, this should fare a bit better, though it may be hurt ifThe Nice Guysover performs.
‘Alice Through the Looking Glass’ – May 27 (Disney)
Like its predecessor,Alice Through the Looking Glasshas an impressive cast that includesJohnny Depp,Anne Hathaway,Mia Wasikowska, and the lateAlan Rickman, and judging from the trailers has stunning visuals that create the immersive Wonderland. Unfortunately,AliceThrough the Looking Glassseems poised to come in significantly under its predecessor’s $334.1 million domestic total and $1.025 billion worldwide gross.
Much ofAlice in Wonderland’s success was built off the excitement seeingLewis Carroll’sbeloved fantasy novel in a live action adaptation for the first time. In addition, the marketing for the first film centered around a battle in Wonderland, whileThrough the Looking Glass’s trailers highlight the arguably less exciting premise of trying to save the Mad Hatter.
Speaking of the Mad Hatter,Alice in Wonderland’s biggest star, Johnny Depp, appears to be taking more of a back seat this time around, with the focus more on Alice traveling back in time. Since its predecessor’s release in 2010, Depp has also had a string of flops in a row, indicating a decrease in drawing power. In addition, though directorJames Bobin(Flight of the Conchords,The Muppets) is extremely talented and may have delivered a strong film, his name lacks the recognition ofTim Burton, who has taken on producing duties forAliceThrough the Looking Glass.
Six years is typically a long wait for a sequel, which means that the firstAlice in Wonderlandis likely in the back of most moviegoers’ minds. Even if it were at the forefront, the 6.5 IMDB rating and 52% Rotten Tomatoes score indicate that the demand for the sequel is not terribly high. Though its brand may draw in some family audiences, this will likely come in around half of its predecessor.
‘X-Men: Apocalypse’ – May 27 (Fox)
Since 2000, we have seen anX-Menmovie released once every three years. Though dips in commercial and critical reception occurred withX-Men: The Last StandandX-Men Origins: Wolverine, the series has stayed fairly consistent with solid entries. The most recent (and arguably best) entry, 2014’sX-Men: Days of Future Past, grossed a huge $233.9 million and a franchise high $747.8 million worldwide.
Apocalypse, hoping to capitalize on its predecessor’s success, brings back most of the cast fromDays of Future Pastwith one major exception:Hugh Jackman(at least not in a starring role), who is undoubtedly the most popular character of the X-Men franchise. However, audiences have warmed up to franchise newcomersMichael Fassbender,James McAvoy, andJennifer Lawrence.Apocalypsealso has one factor that has been absent from the last twoX-Menfilms: a clearly defined and menacing villain, something that has helped propel other action film sequels such asSkyfallandThe Dark Knight.
With strong trailers featuring lots of action, some exciting new characters to the prequel trilogy (Cyclops, Nightcrawler, Storm), and a Memorial Day release date, this seems likely to get close toDays of Future Past, despite competition for action audiences two weeks later fromWarcraft.
Studio Prediction for May:
Even if it did not haveAlice Through the Looking Glasson the calendar for May, this month looks like it will belong to Disney. With a huge amount of hype, excellent reviews, and a strong international debut last weekend,Captain America: Civil Warwill be by far the highest grossing movie of May.
