This past June proved to be a mixed bag, particularly when it came to the success (or lack thereof) of sequels. WhileFinding Dorymanaged to blow even the most realistic expectations out of the water (pun not intended), other franchise fare such asNow You See Me 2,Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, andIndependence Day: Resurgencedisappointed (although all three will likely be helped out overseas). This month in particular has caused much speculation as to the reliability of sequels to bring in crowds, particularly with rising production and marketing costs.
Looking ahead to July, this month looks to be dominated by an original property, asThe Secret Life of Petsappears to be on track for another hit for Illumination Entertainment. Although this year is lagging behind 2015, this July should mark an improvement over last year’s whenMission: Impossible – Rogue NationandMinionsruled the box office.
The BFG – July 1 (Disney)
Outside ofCharlie and the Chocolate Factory,Roald Dahladaptations have a surprisingly spotty track record at the box office.MatildaandJames and the Giant Peachboth came in under their budgets, andWes Anderson’scritically acclaimedFantastic Mr. Foxgrossed only $21.0 million.
None of those films, however, hadSteven Spielbergin the director’s chair, who is one of the few filmmakers behind the camera that can still drive audiences into theaters. In addition,The BFGis a hugely popular novel, selling 37 million copies in UK editions alone. Scheduling wise, the 4thof July makes sense forThe BFG, as it is the only new wide release targeted at families and is likely to appeal to children as well as adults who enjoyed the novel in their earlier years.
Unfortunately, the film faces tough competition from the hugely appealingThe Secret Life of Petsjust one week later, which could leadBFGto fade away quickly. Fellow Disney releaseFinding Doryalso poses a threat, which if last weekend is any indication is in no danger of slowing down.The BFGshould get past the majority of past Roald Dahl adaptations, but will likely get nowhere nearCharlie and the Chocolate Factory.
The Legend of Tarzan – July 1 (Warner Bros.)
In a month filled with films whose box office fates are difficult to predict,The Legend of Tarzanmay just be the toughest. On the one hand, it’s a big-budget effects-driven blockbuster with a strong cast.
On the other hand, while Tarzan the character is well known, it’s hard to gauge how popular a draw he actually is at the box office. 1999’s animatedTarzanwas a success at the box office with a gross of $171.0 million, but the film is not regarded as being one of Disney’s classic films (Sleeping Beauty,The Jungle Book,Cinderella), indicating that demand for a live action adaptation may not terribly high. In addition, given the darker tone and PG-13 rating,The Legend of Tarzanis clearly aiming for a much older audience than its animated counterpart.
Given the actors involved (Alexander Skarsgård, Margot Robbie, Christoph Waltz) and directorDavid Yates’spast filmography (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows), the film is likely quite good. However, given the amount of competition this summer,Tarzanunfortunately looks like it may get lost in the shuffle and fall well below what Warner Bros. is likely hoping for (though it may perform well overseas).
Tarzanfeels reminiscent in many ways of 2010’sRobin Hood, also a summer release with an impressive cast and based on a popular character.Robin Hoodopened with $36.0 million on its way to a $105.2 million gross. While a domestic gross north of $100 million is not exactly a failure,Robin Hoodhad a production budget of $200 million, which is right around the estimates forTarzan. A similar gross seems likely forTarzan, if not a bit lower.
The Purge: Election Year – July 1 (Universal)
2013’sThe Purgewas sold almost entirely on the concept of a 12-hour period in which all crime is legal, leading to a massive $34.0 million opening weekend, but the film burned out quickly, ending with $64.4 million. While at first the outlook for the following year’sThe Purge: Anarchyseemed bleak (due to the poor reception of its predecessor), the film actually delivered on the premise, taking the action out of the house and onto the streets of downtown Los Angeles. Audiences responded well with an opening weekend of $29.8 million and a domestic total of $71.9 million.
The improved reception ofAnarchyoverThe Purgehelps putElection Yearin good stead. It’s also being released during the typically popular 4thof July weekend (commercials have emphasized the “patriotic” nature to purging), and has enough distance fromThe Conjuring 2that audience cannibalization seems unlikely. Universal also made the smart decision to releaseElection Yearwhen politics and the upcoming election are at the height of daily conversations.
WhileElection Year’strailers are filled with action and put a political spin on the concept, the plot feels nearly identical toAnarchy, withFrank Grilloproviding protection in the middle of a city during the most dangerous night of the year. The film should still be a success, butAnarchy’sgross may be out of reach.
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates – July 8 (Fox)
R-rated wedding comedies have had a mixed track record at the box office. WhileWedding CrashersandBridesmaidswere hugely successful,The Five-Year EngagementandThat’s My Boyfell well below expectations, despite featuring many well-known actors.
In terms of target audiences,Mike and Dave Need Wedding Datesseems on the younger end, closer to that ofWedding Crashersthan toThe Five-Year Engagement. Marketing has done a good job setting up the premise and the trailers feature quite a few laughs, although the “Based on a True Story” angle feels like an odd choice for a broad comedy.
The film’s cast, however, does not feel quite as strong asWedding CrashersorBridesmaids.Adam DeVinehas gained much notoriety for his roles inWorkaholicsand thePitch Perfectseries, but this will mark his first starring role in a major studio release. In addition, whileZac Efronis a popular actor, his first two comedies this year,Dirty GrandpaandNeighbors 2came in below expectations. The film does, however, have strong support fromAnna KendrickandAubrey Plaza.
The film also faces tough competition for comedy audiences fromGhostbustersthe following week. This should end up right aroundDirty Grandpa’s$35.5 million.
The Secret Life of Pets – July 8 (Universal)
It may not be on the level of Pixar, but Illumination Entertainment has yet to have a flop and has found huge success withThe Loraxand theDespicable Mefranchise.The Secret Life of Petsmay be based on an original idea, but it seems likely to continue the animation house’s winning streak.
Judging from the marketing,The Secret Life of Petsis being sold on the simple but very relatable and intriguing premise: how do our pets keep themselves busy when we’re not at home? The premise has lent itself to quite a few funny gags, particularly a choreographed heavy metal jam session led by a poodle. Like Illumination’s other films,Petsfeatures a talented voice cast that includesLouis C.K.,Kevin Hart, andEllie Kemper.
Barring an over performance fromIce Age: Collision Course,The Secret Life of Petslooks like the kind of film that should start off with a big opening and hold well, particularly if the positive reviews continue to trickle in. Animal-centric family films have had a great year so far (Zootopia,The Jungle Book), andPetsshould continue this trend.
An interesting bit of counter programming from new distributor Broad Green Pictures,The Infiltratorlooks to be the only film targeting exclusively older adults this July. Based on a true story and autobiography of the same name, the film deals with a U.S. customs agent (Bryan Cranston) infiltrating the cartel of legendary drug lord Pablo Escobar.
True crime drug films typically don’t have the strongest track record at the box office, unless they are anchored by a huge star (Blow) or feature a large ensemble cast (American Gangster). While Bryan Cranston is a popular actor and has gained a major following thanks toBreaking Bad, he doesn’t quite have the same level of drawing power as 2001’sJohnny Depp.
While an exact theater count is not yet available, a film like this would most likely receive a release somewhere in the 1,000 – 1,500 theater range, especially given that Broad Green’s widest release was last Labor Day’s surprise hit,A Walk in the Woods, with 1,960 screens. This should end up close to directorBrad Furman’smost recent film,Runner Runner.
Ghostbusters – July 15 (Sony)
After decades of speculation over a sequel, theGhostbustersproperty is finally being rebooted. At the time of its release over thirty years ago, the first film was a massive smash hit, grossing $229.2 million in its initial run. While the second film was not quite as successful, the property remains popular today, and you’d be hard pressed to find someone that has not seen the first film, or at the very least would not recognize the infamous tagline “Who you gonna call?”
The star and director (Melissa McCarthyandPaul Feig, respectively) of the box office hitsBridesmaids,The Heat,andSpypaired with a hugely popular brand in many ways feels like a guaranteed hit. However, there are a few hurdles facing the film. Since its announcement, the reboot having an all female Ghostbusters team has caused a significant amount of backlash. The first teaser was also met with much criticism, and now holds the distinction of being the most disliked film trailer on YouTube.
As this is Sony’s biggest release of the summer, marketing has been aggressive, with posters everywhere and an array of TV commercials, particularly during the NBA Finals. However, as we’ve seen with recent big budget misfires (Alice Through the Looking Glass,Warcraft), awareness can only take a film so far. Given Feig’s track record, this film may turn out to be quite good. If this is the case, expectGhostbustersto start out (relatively) small, but hold on well with little comedy competition on the horizon.
Ice Age: Collision Course – July 22 (Fox)
One of the longest running animated franchises with consistently released installments since 2002,Ice Ageis now on its fifth entry withCollision Course. Although quality wise it may not be on the level of Pixar or DreamWorks, the series has shown an impressive return on investment: costing only $95 million, 2012’sIce Age: Continental Driftgrossed $161.3 million and a massive $877.2 million worldwide.
Collision Coursebrings back the entire voice cast (Ray Romano,John Leguizamo,Denis Leary), as well as some new additions (Nick Offerman, Adam Devine). The trailers feature Scrat searching for acorns in space, a love interest for Sid, and a possible end to the titular ice age. While these new plot points offer a number of laughs, they seem unlikely to convert many non die-hardIce Agefans.
Given that the franchise’s domestic grosses peaked with 2009’sDawn of the Dinosaursat $195.5 million, andContinental Driftmarked a series low at $161.3 million, it seems likely forCollision Courseto continue this downward trend, particularly with strong competition fromThe Secret Life of Pets. However, Fox is sure to recoup their budget several times overseas, where these films have only increased in popularity.
Lights Out – July 22 (Warner Bros.)
While it hasn’t been a great year for supernatural horror, the success ofThe Conjuring 2shows that the genre still has lots of life left when given an appealing option. Based on the short film of the same name,Lights Outseems appealing for a number of reasons: it has a fresh take on a familiar premise (an adult having an “imaginary” friend that is terrorizing her family), early positive reviews, and one of the scariest trailers in recent memory.
It doesn’t feel like an accident thatLights Outis being released during the same time frame asThe Conjuringthree years ago, when that film surpassed all expectations on its way to $137.4 million. However, without the true story angle or the R rating, which ironically contributed quite a buzz toThe Conjuring, this seems unlikely to break out to quite the same extent.
This should still be a significant hit for the horror genre, particularly if the film lives up to the good reviews. A gross around that ofMama($71.6 million), another well reviewed supernatural horror film dealing with a family in peril, should be within reach.
Star Trek Beyond – July 22 (Paramount)
Seven years ago,J.J. Abramspulled off the difficult feat of introducingStar Trekto a new generation of moviegoers and appealing to die-hard Trek fans, resulting in an impressive domestic gross of $257.7 million. Though it couldn’t quite live up to the expectations of its predecessor,Star Trek into Darknessproved to be a hit, grossing $228.7 million stateside and $467.3 million worldwide.
With Abrams tied with up withStar Wars: The Force Awakens, action veteranJustin Linstepped into directing duties forBeyond, which seems like a great choice given the jaw-dropping set pieces from the recentFast and Furiousfilms and the series’ themes of family and teamwork. Unfortunately,Beyondseems to face a bit of an uphill battle.
The first teaser trailer was met with mostly negative reception, though the theatrical version did help instill a bit of goodwill into the film. In addition, looking at past action trilogies, the third film has almost always come under its predecessor.The Dark Knight Risesgrossed 84% ofThe Dark Knight’smassive $533.3 million total, and the recentX-Men Apocalypselooks to come in at roughly $60 million less than its predecessor.The Dark Knight Risesalso had the advantage of being the definite conclusion to the trilogy, a luxury thatBeyonddoes not share (starsChris PineandZachary Quintoare contracted for a fourth film).
The second to last weekend for July is historically when the slower period of the summer begins. During the last five years, the highest opening weekend of this period belongs toCaptain America: The First Avenger, with $65.1 million. This seems like a realistic target forBeyond, but it will likely still come in significantly underInto Darkness.
